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Stan Becton | NCAA.com | November 12, 2023

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What Week 12 could look like

The most successful walk-ons in recent college football history

Six ranked teams lost — all in the top 20 — so the third edition of the College Football Playoff rankings will have a new look. Before the CFP committee unveils the rankings on Tuesday, I predict where the top 25 teams will land.

The third of six CFP top 25 reveals happens on Tuesday, Nov. 14 (here's the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee's official protocols here.

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Week 12 Top 25 projections

These predictions are as of Sunday, November 12. 

  1. Georgia (10-0) | LW: 2 — A top-10 win over Ole Miss gets the Bulldogs back to the top spot.
  2. Ohio State (10-0) | LW: 1 — The Buckeyes fall one spot, to no fault of their own. Georgia's resume has just caught up with Ohio State in the last two weeks.
  3. Michigan (10-0) | LW: 3 — Michigan stays behind Ohio State because while both have wins over Penn State, the Buckeyes have a win over Notre Dame
  4. Washington (10-0) | LW: 5 — Consecutive ranked wins get Washington into the top four.
  5. Florida State (10-0) | LW: 4 — Florida State falls after only beating Miami by one score.
  6. Oregon (9-1) | LW: 6 — Oregon remains the best one-loss team with a win over Southern California.
  7. Texas (9-1) | LW: 7 — Texas stands pat after defeating TCU.
  8. Alabama (9-1) | LW: 8 — Alabama stands pat after defeating Kentucky.
  9. Louisville (9-1) | LW: 11 — Louisville moves up after the two teams in front of it last week lost.
  10. Oregon State (8-2) | LW: 12 — Oregon State looks like the best two-loss team after a dominant win over Stanford.
  11. Missouri (8-2) | LW: 14 — Missouri bounced back in the win column with a win over then-No. 13 Tennessee.
  12. Ole Miss (8-2) | LW: 9 — Ole Miss falls three spots after losing to Georgia.
  13. Penn State (8-2) | LW: 10 — Penn State falls three spots after losing to Michigan.
  14. Oklahoma (8-2) | LW: 17 — Oklahoma rises after three ranked teams ahead of it last week lost.
  15. LSU (7-3) | LW: 19 — LSU and quarterback Jaydon Daniels dominated Florida and rises four spots.
  16. Notre Dame (7-3) | LW: 20 — Notre Dame had a bye last week and moves up above teams that lost.
  17. Arizona (7-3) | LW: 21 — A hard-fought win over Colorado gets Arizona into the top 20.
  18. Tennessee (7-3) | LW: 13 — Tennessee suffered a 36-7 defeat to Missouri. The 29-point defeat drops the Vols.
  19. Iowa (8-2) | LW: 22 — Iowa's offense is far from spectacular, but a shutout from the defense boosts the Hawkeyes up the rankings.
  20. North Carolina (8-2) | LW: 24 — North Carolina needed two overtimes to take down rival Duke, keeping ACC title game hopes alive for the Tar Heels.
  21. Utah (7-3) | LW: 18 — A loss to Washington knocks the Utes out of the top 20.
  22. Tulane (8-1) | LW: 23 — Tulane only moves up one spot after a close win over Tulsa.
  23. Kansas (7-3) | LW: 16 — Kansas falls after losing to an unranked Texas Tech.
  24. Kansas State (7-3) | LW: 25 — Kansas State moves up after a win.
  25. Liberty (10-0) | LW: NR — An undefeated Liberty team finally gets in the CFP rankings after hitting the 10-win mark.

New Teams: Liberty
Teams to drop out: Oklahoma State (15)

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

Can Georgia get to No. 1 with another ranked win?

Georgia has beaten Missouri and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks. The CFP committee pointed to Ohio State's ranked wins for the reason it opened two weeks ago atop its rankings. Has Georgia's recent stretch closed that gap?

How will the committee sort the two-loss teams?

Two-loss teams Oregon State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Penn State and Oklahoma could all rank anywhere from No. 10 to No. 14 this week. A case can be made for all to be the two-loss team in the top 10 after recent weeks. I went with Oregon State at the top since it's the only team from the group with back-to-back wins. Will the committee agree?

UNDEFEATED TRACKER: Here's a look at all of the undefeated FBS teams

Is this the week Liberty breaks through?

Liberty is the only eligible team (sorry James Madison) that's undefeated and unranked. The Flames reached 10-0 last week. Is that enough to enter the top 25?

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